Türkiye secured a return to the World Cup for the first time since 2002 as they successfully ran the playoff gauntlet. After finishing as runners-up to Spain in qualifying Group E, the Crescent-Stars would go on to firstly defeat Romania and then Kosovo, both by a single goal, to seal their return to football’s grandest stage.
Online betting sites, however, are acutely aware of the task now ahead of Vincenzo Montella’s men. The latest odds from Lucky Rebel make them an 80/1 outsider to claim the trophy for the first time this summer, level with the likes of Mexico and Ecuador. Indeed, even reaching the quarterfinals appears to be a long shot, with suchz a run priced at 9/2. But Türkiye has managed to upset the odds once before.
Türkiye’s Famous 2002 Run
The last time they secured an invite to football’s biggest party, the Turks took full advantage of a favourable draw to power their way to the bronze medal. After squeezing through the group stage ahead of Costa Rica on goal difference thanks to a six-goal swing in Türkiye’s favour in the final round of matches, Hakan Şükür and Co. weren’t about to let their opportunity slip through their fingers.
They defeated co-hosts Japan in the round of 16 courtesy of defender Ümit Davala’s first-half winner. They would then end the Cinderella story of Senegal in the quarterfinals, with İlhan Mansız’s golden goal sending the Lions of Teranga home after a stellar debut. In the semis, Türkiye met a Brazil side that had already beaten them in the group stage, and lightning would ultimately strike twice as golden boot winner Ronaldo netted the only goal of the game.
O Fenômeno would help himself to a brace in the final against Germany, while the Crescent-Stars were forced to settle for the bronze medal, claiming a thrilling 3-2 victory against the second of the co-hosts, South Korea. 24 years on, can Montella’s men mount a similar run? If they are to, here is what it could look like?
Group Stage
Türkiye’s reward for their playoff heroics was a spot in Group D, arguably one of the weakest groups at the World Cup. The co-hosting United States are the 13/10 frontrunners to top the quartet, with Montella’s side the 7/4 second. Then comes Paraguay at 15/4 and finally 7/1 outsiders Australia.
The campaign will begin against the underdog Socceroos on June 13th in Vancouver, a clash that the Crescent-Stars will fancy their chances of winning. Then comes Paraguay in Santa Clara six days later, before the crunch clash against the USMNT on June 25th at the stunning SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles. That Tinseltown showdown will likely decide the group winner, and topping the group is of paramount importance for the rest of the tournament.
Early Knockout Rounds
Should the Turks manage to top Group D, then they will secure a favourable round of 32 clash against one of the best-placed third teams from Groups B, E, F, I, or J. Failure to top the group is by no means a disaster, with the group G runners-up, likely Mohamed Salah’s Egypt, awaiting instead. But as we progress further through the tournament, that group winner tag becomes more and more important.
Türkiye will likely face Group G winners Belgium in the round of 16 if we follow their group winner path. In years gone by, that would be a fearsome prospect, but the Red Devils are by no means the menacing force they once were throughout the peak of their golden generation. The likes of Kevin De Bruyne, Romelu Lukaku, and Thibaut Courtois are all well into their 30s, while the likes of Eden Hazard and Jan Vertonghen are both long gone. Jeremy Doku leads the new crop, but Montella will certainly fancy his side’s chances.
Argentina or Spain Could Spell the End
If it’s the runners-up spot that Türkiye are forced to settle for, then a victory against Egypt would set up a daunting last 16 clash with reigning champions Argentina. And while Belgium aren’t the force of old, the Albiceleste certainly are. They head to the World Cup as the defending kings following Lionel Messi’s heroics in Qatar, winning the player of the tournament award as he led his team to the famous golden trophy for the first time in his glittering career, cementing his legacy as arguably the finest player that’s ever lived in the process.
The problem for Türkiye is that if they do follow the group winners’ path and somehow beat Belgium, then reigning European Champions Spain would await in the quarterfinals. La Roja head to North America as the team to beat, having romped to Euro 2024 glory in Berlin two years ago, and Montella knows that only too well. Luis de la Fuente’s side destroyed his Crescent-Stars 6-0 in qualifying in Istanbul, no less, and finding a way past them to reach the semifinals as they did back in 2002 will be a herculean task.
