Türkiye are guaranteed to finish bottom of UEFA Nations League Group A1 following Thursday’s 2–1 defeat to Belgium in İzmir, yet the Crescent-Stars still retain a mathematical lifeline to avoid automatic relegation to League B.
Having lost all five of their group fixtures so far, newly appointed head coach Sergen Yalçın’s side sit on zero points with a -10 goal difference—meaning even a victory away against France on Sunday, 15 November cannot lift them out of fourth place in Group A1.
However, under the competition’s 2026/27 relegation format, finishing bottom of a League A group does not automatically send a team straight down. Instead, across the four fourth-placed finishers in League A:
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The two worst fourth-placed teams suffer direct relegation to League B.
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The two best fourth-placed teams enter the League A/B relegation play-offs against League B runners-up.
As a result, Türkiye’s fate ahead of Tuesday, 17 November—when the final Matchday 6 fixtures conclude—depends both on Sunday’s result against France and outcomes involving Serbia, Czechia, Norway, and Wales in the other League A groups.
Scenario 1: Türkiye Beat France (3 Points)
A statement win in France would lift Türkiye to 3 points and improve their -10 goal difference (to -9 with a one-goal victory, -8 with a two-goal margin, and so forth)—putting them in a strong position to claim a play-off berth:
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Serbia and Czechia fail to win: If Serbia (who face Germany and Greece) and Czechia (who face Spain and Croatia) fail to win any of their remaining matches, neither side can surpass 2 points. Türkiye would automatically finish ahead of both on 3 points and secure a play-off spot.
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Tiebreakers at 3 points: If either Serbia or Czechia win one of their remaining games to also finish on 3 points,overall goal difference among the fourth-placed sides will prove decisive—making the margin of victory against France crucial.
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Group A4 permutation: In Group A4, where Norway and Wales meet each other, a draw would take both teams to 4 points and put that group’s bottom side out of Türkiye’s reach. However, if one wins and the loser also falls in their final match, Group A4’s fourth-placed finisher would stay on 3 points and enter the goal-difference equation.
Scenario 2: Türkiye Draw with France (1 Point)
Taking a point against France would move Yalçın’s squad onto 1 point with a -10 goal difference, keeping their play-off hopes alive under stricter conditions:
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Both Serbia and Czechia lose all of their remaining fixtures to finish on 0 points, leaving Türkiye ahead on 1 point.
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Alternatively, if one finishes on 0 points and the other manages a single draw to also end on 1 point, Türkiye would advance to the play-offs if they hold the superior goal difference.
Scenario 3: Türkiye Lose to France (0 Points)
Even if Türkiye suffer a sixth straight defeat in France—despite the individual brilliance of Real Madrid playmaker Arda Güler, who scored a spectacular free-kick against Belgium—direct relegation would still not be mathematically confirmed until Tuesday night.
To reach the play-offs on 0 points, Türkiye would need at least two other fourth-placed teams across League A to also finish their campaigns without a single point and end with a worse goal difference than Türkiye’s final tally.
What Happens Next?
Yalçın—who will again lean heavily on 2026/27 European club standouts led by Arda Güler—takes his squad into Sunday’s Group A1 finale against France knowing a positive result could salvage a March play-off lifeline. Once the final round of League A matches wraps up on Tuesday, 17 November, Türkiye will know whether they face a play-off tie to preserve their top-tier status or drop directly into League B.
